Research

I currently have three peer-reviewed publications and multiple works in progress.

In addition, for several research and data collection projects I have led or participated in there is information below. Some of them are linked to GitHub repositories with tutorials and code.

Peer-Reviewed Publications

  1. Gelvez, Juan David, and Leo Bauer. “Climate Disasters, Armed Conflict, and Forced Displacement: A 23-Year Spatial Analysis in Colombia.” 2025. Forthcoming in Social Science Quarterly.

  2. McWeeney, Margaret, Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham, and Leo Bauer. “Rebel Actors and Legitimacy Building.” 2025. International Politics, 62: 269–290. doi:10.1057/s41311-023-00493-1.

  3. Czymara, Christian S., and Leo Bauer. “Discursive Shifts in the German Right-Wing Newspaper Junge Freiheit 1997–2019: A Computational Approach.” 2025. German Politics, 34(1): 128–155. doi:10.1080/09644008.2023.2231353.

Manuscripts under Review

  1. “Where Do Mediators Try to Prevent Civil War?” With David Cunningham, Megan Lloyd and Sloan Lansdale. 2025. Revise and resubmit at Journal of Peace Research.

  2. “The Nonviolent Legacies of Rebel Group Origins.” With Kathleen Gallagher Cunningham. 2025. Revise and resubmit at Journal of Peace Research.

Works in Progress

  1. “Explaining Informant Recruitment Tactics by Coercive Institutions in Autocracies.” 2025. Early draft.

  2. “Media Manipulation Strategies During Protest in Autocracies: Evidence from the German Democratic Republic.” 2025. Working paper.

Other Projects


2025 Leo Bauer.